Comparative analysis of the factors determining the variability of EBITDA and EVA® in agribusiness companies

Abstract

The Brazilian agribusiness sector has a consistent history of generating continuous trade surpluses, representing 27% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To assess whether benchmark companies in the sector exhibited favorable outcomes and abnormal returns even in times of economic recession, this research compared the traditional operational measure EBITDA with a company valuation measure, EVA^®. This second performance indicator assesses the ability to generate wealth for shareholders over an indefinite time horizon, rather than focusing on short-term results. The primary objective of this study was to identify key statistically significant market fundamentals and indicators that determine the variability of Operating Profit (EBITDA) and Economic Value Added (EVA^®) for two benchmark companies in the agribusiness sector (SLC Agrícola and BrasilAgro). To analyze different economic scenarios, the period from 2012 to 2022 was selected, encompassing the economic recessions of 2015 and 2016, with eight successive quarters of negative GDP growth, and the years 2015 and 2020, marked by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The panel data methodology was employed for this purpose. The results suggest that the selected independent variables partially capture the accounting, sectoral, and economic conjuncture performance during the analyzed period. An inverse relationship between EBITDA and EVA^® was observed, whereas the Agricultural GDP and EMBI-BR, along with their associated p-values, did not demonstrate significance during the analyzed periods. This suggests that the performance of agribusiness companies is generally not significantly affected by adverse economic scenarios.